England’s housing pipeline is coming under increasing pressure as new analysis suggests delivery is already around 223,000 homes behind the pace required to build 1.5 million homes by the end of this Parliament.
Analysis by landvaluecalculator.co.uk of the latest government housing supply figures calculates that around 437,900 homes have been delivered since July 2024.
Around 660,000 would have been required by this point if delivery were spread evenly across the five-year Parliament.
But of particular concern for developers is the pipeline of future schemes, with the number of homes granted planning permission falling to around 212,000 in the year to June — down 12% annually and around 30% compared with four years ago.
DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
The fall in permissions comes despite signs of improvement in construction activity, with new-build starts increasing 15% in the year to June 2026.
New-build completions totalled 143,773 over the same period, according to the analysis of Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government figures.
Landvaluecalculator.co.uk argues that the declining number of consented homes could make it increasingly difficult to accelerate delivery sufficiently over the remaining years of the Parliament.
A spokesperson says: “Starts are up, and ministers are entitled to say so. But most of that rise is London getting back on its feet, completions are the lowest since 2016, and the stock of homes with planning permission has shrunk by 30% in four years.
“Homes that are not consented now will not be finished by 2029.”
DELIVERY CHALLENGE
The analysis calculates that housing delivery would now need to increase to around 1,041 homes a day for the Government’s 1.5 million ambition to be reached by July 2029.
Continuing at the latest estimated rate would result in around 989,000 homes being delivered over the Parliament, according to the analysis — around 511,000 below the target.
That figure is an extrapolation by landvaluecalculator.co.uk rather than an official government forecast and assumes the latest delivery rate continues for the remainder of the Parliament.
A spokesperson adds: “The Housing Secretary said there was a slim chance. This week’s figures put a number on it.
“The government is on course to miss its flagship pledge by a third, and to build about half the homes its own assessment says England needs.”
DEVELOPMENT FINANCE
For the specialist finance market, the figures highlight the importance of maintaining a viable pipeline of consented sites if developers are to increase housing delivery.
Development lenders and bridging providers have increasingly positioned themselves as sources of capital for SME developers, but finance alone cannot translate into additional housing supply without sufficient viable sites progressing through the planning system.
With planning permissions falling while the required delivery rate rises, the challenge is increasingly not simply funding construction but ensuring enough schemes reach the point at which development finance can be deployed.
