Bridging completions could reach £8bn in 2026 despite a sharp slowdown at the start of the year, according to a forecast from Octane Capital.
The specialist lender says completions totalled £1.8bn during the first quarter, down 26.5% compared with the final three months of 2025 and 35.7% year-on-year.
However, Octane expects activity to recover during the remainder of 2026 following two years of significant expansion across the bridging market.
Its forecast, based on bridging completion data from the previous 24 months and an exponential smoothing model accounting for seasonality, puts full-year completions at around £8bn.
MARKET ‘RECALIBRATION’
That would remain below the estimated £10.03bn completed during 2025 but would leave annual activity approximately 39% higher than the £5.76bn recorded in 2023.
Annual bridging completions increased from £5.76bn in 2023 to £7.34bn in 2024 before passing £10bn for the first time last year, according to Octane’s analysis.
The lender argues that demand for short-term finance continues to be supported by time-sensitive property purchases, chain breaks, refurbishment projects and development exits.
‘FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS HAVEN’T DISAPPEARED’
Jonathan Samuels (main picture, inset), CEO of Octane Capital, says: “The wider bridging market may have started the year at a more subdued level following the exceptional growth seen in recent years, but that certainly wasn’t reflective of our own experience at Octane, where we enjoyed a very strong first half, further strengthened by our acquisition by Aldermore.
“More broadly, it’s important not to mistake a short-term market slowdown for a fundamental reduction in the importance of bridging finance. Our forecast suggests that completions could still reach around £8bn by the end of the year.
“That would understandably fall short of the record-breaking levels seen in 2025, but it would still leave the market almost 40% larger than it was in 2023, demonstrating just how significantly bridging’s role within the wider lending landscape has grown.
“The fundamental drivers behind this growth haven’t disappeared. Borrowers still require speed and certainty, investors need the flexibility to act when opportunities arise and developers increasingly require funding solutions that can accommodate more complex project and exit timelines.
“So whilst 2026 may prove to be a year of recalibration for the wider market rather than one of record-breaking growth, bridging finance remains firmly established as a vital part of the property finance landscape.”
