Research among bridging professionals suggests political uncertainty outweighs concerns over rates, affordability and housing supply.
Government policy is viewed as the biggest risk facing the mortgage market, according to new research from Black & White Bridging, with intermediaries placing it ahead of interest rates, affordability pressures and property availability.
The specialist lender surveyed 100 intermediaries active in the bridging sector, asking them to rank a range of potential risks to the wider mortgage market. These included Bank of England base rate decisions, consumer affordability, first-time buyer activity, government policy and property affordability.
More than half of those polled, 53%, ranked government policy as the single biggest risk, while a further 28% placed it second. Consumer affordability was identified as the next most significant concern, with 31% ranking it as the greatest threat, followed by base rate decisions at 11%.
BUDGET SHAMBLES
Damien Druce, chief operating officer at Black & White Bridging, said: “Clearly, the sector has little faith in the current government. Given the complete shambles the Chancellor made of the Budget, I’d say they are bang on the money.
“Unfortunately, the chaos looks set to continue, with Ms. Reeves failing to rule out further tax rises in the Spring. She has already alienated landlords and those with higher value properties while offering nothing to support first-time buyers.
“Brokers have learnt the hard way that this anti-business, anti-growth government is not to be trusted.”
Druce, who has made his opposition to the government clear over recent weeks, said concerns around affordability and interest rates were closely linked to political decision-making.
He said: “Consumer affordability and the base rate, via inflation, are both impacted by changes to government policy. So, this all comes back to the same core issue.
“It remains to be seen what impact the Budget will have on inflation and the thinking of the Monetary Policy Committee. But for these factors to become less of a risk, a base rate cut must be implemented this week, enabling interest rates to come down as we head into the new year, and getting the sector off to a strong start in 2026.”
FIRST-TIME BUYER RISKS
The research suggests that risks linked to the first-time buyer market are seen as relatively low, while property availability is considered the least concerning factor of all.
Druce said: “Once it was a huge problem, but pent-up demand, due to Budget hesitancy, has led to plenty of property being available and on the market.
“As transactions begin to pick up, this may become more of an issue, especially if interest rates drop. But with landlords selling up in droves, we have a long way to go before property availability becomes an issue again.”
Despite concerns over policy direction, sentiment across the bridging sector remains broadly positive. Black & White Bridging recently reported that 82% of bridging professionals expect their confidence in the market to grow over the next 12 months, supported by hopes of greater economic clarity and stability following the Budget.
